Is Google Go-Long the Future of Fiber Home?

Cedric Lam on Oct 26 will unveil Go-Long. Google thinks "this new standard can reduce the network operating costs and investment costs." The only information is the press release, 

Go-Long is the company's new generation of optical access networks. Described by Google as a new Time and Wavelength Division Multiplexed Super PON (TWDM Super PON), the company believes that this new standard can reduce the network operating costs and investment costs. The company claims that the technology can do this by extending the transmission distance, which can reduce the number of central offices that need to deploy the optical line termination (OLT), significantly reducing equipment, space and power costs.

In other words, they ain't saying anything until the announcement at BBWF. 

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Answers Needed

Important issues, often not discussed, that I only have partial answers for. Ideas welcome.

Africa

Why are most African cables running at 10% capacity when users are so short of bandwidth?

Why did growth go from phenomenal to almost negligible across most of the continent early in 2016?

How many billions do the giant multinationals extract from African countries every year?

Is Massive MIMO Ready for Africa? Click read more for partial answers.

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Say Hello at Hangzhou Oct 18/19, Berlin Oct 23-26, Las Vegas 29-31, London Nov 15-16

Say hello to the round fellow with a beard. We start at Huawei's Ultra Broadband Forum, Hangzhou, October18-19, which will feature top executives from telcos around the world. Then to Berlin for Adtran's Press and Analyst event October 23, the Broadband Forum's Access Summit October 24, and the Informa Broadband World Forum on the 25th and 26th.

The Broadband Forum's Las Vegas Access Summit will be on the 29th followed by Calix Connections. Home to New York for a while, then I hope to attend Huawei's London Mobile Broadband Forum on Nov 15 & 16. The 2016 Huawei Mobile in Tokyo was one of the two best mobile events of the year. 

These are all strong events, worth the cost and travel. I'd love to share a coffee or a drink with readers and capture your news with Jennie's camera.

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Historic Promise: AT&T Soon Will Offer "1 Gig Speeds Ubiquitously." Mostly True

Randall Stephenson makes an extraordinary claim. "You need this gig speed," adding, "Over the next few years you get 1 gig speeds ubiquitously." Randall, unfortunately, has the same attitude to the truth as the average politician, even when speaking at Goldman Sachs.

AT&T's actual plan doesn't go that far but is remarkable. Some percentage of the country - ?5-15% - will not be covered. The "gig" will be 75 to 300 megabits down, most times and most places. That's not too shabby by any standard and a huge jump over the 5 meg to 25 meg speeds most common on LTE networks.

In wireless, I assume he mostly is planning "Gig LTE." In certain test conditions, that does deliver close to a gig. In the real world, the best analysis available indicates speeds will usually be a quarter gig or less. (Article coming.) But "gigabit" is a magic word so I'm not surprised he's using it. Even 75 megabits to 85-95% of the U.S. is A GOOD THING.

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All Rome To Be Fibered By Government Electric Company

Publicly owned electric/water utility Acea and government-controlled Enel Open Fiber have apparently reached a deal to bring fiber to every home in Rome in the next few years. By using publicly owned facilities in place, they expect to keep the cost under $400/home.

That figure is about 80% less than Australia's NBN is spending, and probably 30-50% less than AT&T is spending as they fiber 3M homes/year. On the other hand, Telefonica tells me their cost to fiber a home in Spain is similar to $400.

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Ericsson Cutting 25K Jobs

Svenska Dagbladet report not denied. Every large telco vendor outside of China has been suffering for several years, although Ericsson maintained an illusion until recently. Ericsson and Nokia remain remarkable companies with world-class engineers, but it's a tough business. An Ericsson exec in India estimates the world market is going down currently at ~5%/year. 

Official details are limited. Ericsson claims the cuts "do not include R&D." Neither Ericsson nor Nokia can cut research. They face Huawei, with an R&D budget larger than the combined spending of Ericsson, Nokia, and whomever you place third. All three have great products, but Huawei's greater research budget is allowing them to outflank others with a wider product line. 

The service division is the largest target. It's probably been losing money for several years but that's been buried in the financials. The video division, built up by spending billions, is on the block. That includes what once was Microsoft's IPTV.

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Q2 U.S.: Every Telco Goes Down

Cable up to 64% of the market. For a decade, telcos held on to 45% of the market in the U.S. But AT&T and Verizon haven't upgraded almost half their lines, planning to go wireless only to 10's of millions of homes. (One network is cheaper than two.) The other U.S telcos have done even less, keeping dividends far higher than earnings and skimping on capex.

Customers are fleeing DSL networks that often are ten and fifteen years old. The U.S. has cable to 92%, with most offering 50 megs standard. Comcast's primary offering is 100 megabits and they just extended a gig of DOCSIS 3.1 to Boston and Philadelphia. Frontier lost 101,000 subs and Century 77,000. Verizon's once world-leading fiber network wasn't  to prevent a loss of 23,000 customers. The saddest story is AT&T. They have added 5M lines of fiber the last two years and spent $67B on DirecTV, seeking an expanded customer base. Despite that, they lost 9,000 customers. 

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Cox 40% Gigified in 2017 (Correction)

All 6M Cox customers should have a gig available by the end of 2019.  Correction: I had reported that Cox had intended to offer a gig to all in 2016. I believed that was a commitment to a consumer priced DOCSIS 3.1 service. I was wrong. Cox did have a near-universal gigabit offering, but it was a business priced dedicated fiber, ($thousands, I believe.) 

Todd Smith of Cox writes, "DOCSIS 3.1 is live now with employees and we will begin deploying to customers in some markets later this year. 40 percent of the households we serve nationwide will have access to Gigabit speeds by the end of 2017."

Cox Vice President Philip Nutsugah tells Mari Sibley, "The company plans to reach the rest of its customers (or at least 99% of them) with gigabit broadband by the end of 2019."

50M home giant Comcast expects, "DOCSIS 3.1 across the majority of its footprint by year-end."

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