Europe going DSL, not fiber, except Spain, Scandinavia and perhaps France. When Deutsche Telekom in September 2012 decided to abandon fiber and go with vectored DSL, it inspired the DSL tsunami. Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium and the Netherlands are now delivering 50-100 megabit speeds to tens of thousands of paying customers. Alcatel, Huawei, Keymile and Adtran have shipped at least 5,000,000 ports capable of vectoring, although the telcos aren't offering the service to most of those homes. 

   Almost no one believed John & George back in 2003 when they predicted 100 megabit DSL to 500 meters and more. By 2010, vendors including Alcatel, Huawei and ECI had lab test; by 2011, Austria and Belgium telcos had some results from the field. By September 2012, the trend was clear, as you can see from the excerpt below of my DSL Tsunami article. 

     Deutsche Telekom promised their regulator they'd be vectoring by the end of 2013. They are almost a year late and still moving slowly, with only 200K homes eligible. They target 3.5M by the ebd of 2014 and 20M more in 2015 & 2016. Anyone want to bet on this?


   Swisscom in early tests discovered 2% of lines actually ran slower with vectoring. The first British test with Huawei didn't come close to the promised speeds, although that's now been resolved.

    Belgacom was actually the first with commercial customers in January 2014 but they are only selling speeds up to 70 megabits down. They told me "Many but not all the lines up to 200 meters are testing at 100 megabits. We chose to be conservative and cap speeds at 70 meg. So far, the vectored lines are proving highly stable." I believe, but can't get an answer, that many of the lines at both DT & Swisscom are far longer than 200 meters. Even with improvements, most of those lines will not get "100 megabits." DT is refusing to release actual speeds, instead saying "up to 100 megabits." I hope Homann insists on accurate speed data. It will probably require bonding to get many of the lines to 100 megabits, which I don't believe anyone is developing yet.

    Kabel Deutschland is moving to 200 meg and Tele Columbus to 150 meg, leaving DT behind. Telenet in Flanders is moving soon to a gig of DOCSIS 3.1.

DSL Tsunami Rolling Over Europe (First Look) 20M lines at Deutsche Telekom and French approval confirm an almost unbelievably rapid switch. Fiber home across Europe is not the future; 80%, maybe 90% of new lines constructed will be vectored VDSL. Telecom Austria and Belgacom have already begun and their field results are convincing almost every European telco to go with vectored VDSL.



March 21

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