Q4 US 230

2,095K adds to 95,056K. Over 100,000,000 including smaller companies. No surprises here. DSL - especially lines not upgraded - continues to be clobbered. Most U.S. cable is 100 megabits or more. Almost half the cable homes are offered a gigabit. In my Manhattan building, Verizon doesn't offer more than 3 megabits.

AT&T is apparently the anomaly here, adding 114K while the other telcos fell. However, without the 3M fiber homes and the joint marketing with DirecTV, they too would be negative. 

Century, Frontier, and Windstream lost between 5% & 10% of their broadband lines. They've starved the network in order to keep the dividend high and eventually it caught up to them. Leaders at all three have been promising investors they would turn around the 600,000 lines lost in 2017. Given the inferior networks, I believe they are lying to themselves.

Karl Bode gets it right. "Other American telcos, like Frontier, Windstream and Centurylink, have effectively refused to upgrade aging DSL lines at any real scale ... Other telcos (like CenturyLink) now don't see residential broadband as worth their time, so they've shifted much of their focus to enterprise services or the acquisition of transit operators like Level 3."

Data is from Leichtman, a reliable source. Bruce estimates these 15 companies are 95% of U.S. broadband lines. The > 3,000 smaller telcos have most of the remainder. Adding those to the 95M total above takes us over 100M today.

The U.S. is less than 12% of world broadband lines. By the end of this year, that may be less than 10%. 


Cable Companies
Comcast 25,869,000 1,168,000
Charter 23,903,000 1,310,000
Altice 4,046,200 83,700
Mediacom 1,209,000 47,000
WOW (WideOpenWest)* 730,000 11,100
Cable ONE** 524,935 11,027
Other Major Private Company^ 4,880,000 90,000
Total Top Cable 61,162,135 2,720,827
Phone Companies
AT&T 15,719,000 114,000
Verizon 6,959,000 (79,000)
CenturyLink 5,662,000 (283,000)
Frontier 3,938,000 (333,000)
Windstream 1,006,600 (44,500)
Cincinnati Bell 308,700 5,500
FairPoint^^ 301,000 (5,624)
Total Top Telco 33,894,300 (625,624)
Total Top Broadband 95,056,435 2,095,203


April 18

“My three biggest customers are marching to 7 and 5 nanometers.” Lip-Bu Tan. Moore’s Law ain’t dead yet.

Eric Xu, current Huawei Chairman, said consumers would find no “material difference between 4G & 5G.” Dozens of top engineers agree the "5G Revolution" is hokum, including  DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn, FT/Orange SVP Arnaud Vamparys, and BT CEO Gavin Patterson.
     Politicians and marketers pushed b_______. What’s coming for 5-10 years is good for telco capacity but otherwise disappointing. Unfortunately. 
     On the other hand, mmWave & Massive MIMO are improving at a ferocious rate, advancing telco capacity enormously. Massive MIMO has made it practical to use 3.5 GHz frequencies, a second remarkable booster. The "5G Revolution" is dead; Long Live the real 5G and advanced wireless!
U.S. attacks on Huawei and ZTE look to be an historic disaster.

China’s logical response is to invest to become independent of the U.S. They already have $100B on the table for memory chips and are rumored to add another $100B. Huawei/HiSilicon already holds their own against Qualcomm and everyone else in the world. 
    Zeng Xuezhong of Spreadtrum, world #3 mobile chipmaker, confirms: China will “speed up the chip R&D investment that is self-controlled and self-researched. We must never forget to make it bigger and stronger.”
     U.S. warships patrolling China’s seas inspire security fears. So does Trump’s threat to a country on China’s border."Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, [for] fire, fury and frankly power, the likes of which the world has never seen before.”
     China would be stupid not to have domestic capacity just in case. The Chinese leadership is not stupid.
The year's best wireless conference is next week. Ted Rappaport, Sandeep Rangan and colleagues bring the world's best engineers to the Brooklyn 5G Conference Summit. This year, Paulraj, Onoe, Fettweis, Katabi, and their peers are coming. Do not miss the webcast, http://bit.ly/2HuOKqW .

April 10

A special report: Who Are The Three Billion? The Color Of The Net Has Changed http://bit.ly/netcolor
1/3rd wireless only, 2/3rds in Global South, 75% not native English speakers.