Goldman Sachs took a $5B writeoff this morning for the new tax law and Bloomberg expects $20B more from Citi. Verizon and AT&T have some of the same issues so may see similar. Do not believe U.S. earnings results in the next year or two because balance sheet adjustments may overwhelm underlying trends. Underneath it all, all these companies are extremely profitable and the tax changes will put them ahead. But the numbers the next 24 months could be highly misleading.

     Verizon has $46B in "deferred long term liabilities" and $38B in poorly defined "other liabilities." Major adjustments - up or down - would surprise no one. Phil Cusick of Morgan did an analysis a while back from which I inferred Verizon would need writedowns. Since he hadn't said that explicitly, he got angry at me and cut me off his distro. (I'd like to be back. His analysis then and other times was on target.) I haven't trusted Verizon's financials for a decade because of unclear items like these liabilities and enormous goodwill. Former CFO Stephenson at AT&T has long been a wizard at delivering the numbers he wants to. 

Suggestion: If you are putting money into this industry, closely follow analysis from John Hodulik and Craig Moffett. They are among the best at finding reality beneath the figures reported.

     Separately, Adtran pre-announced 4Q sales at $125M, $20M less than the last three quarters.

Tom Stanton explained, "this quarter has been significantly impacted by a merger-related review and slowdown in the spending at a domestic Tier 1 customer. Our current understanding is that this review will be completed in 60 to 90 days, at which time capital plans will be finalized." I thought that meant AT&T is slowing down spending. T has been telling the street the 4G build is mostly over and the 5G will be modest for at least another year or two, allowing a capex cut. I hear a rumor it might be Century instead.

     Randall fired a few thousand people just before Christmas, part of the plan to cut 70,000 jobs that most people haven't noticed. AT&T decided a year ago or more there was no growth in telecom and they would have to cut back. One way to view the $85B Time Warner deal is that AT&T had no other good way to move that much money from the current business. (Writing quickly here- there's much more to the analysis.)

    Adtran is down 14% on the news and Calix 5% on fears they will also be affected. The details in the announcement are somewhat encouraging; Adtran expects to almost break even for the quarter despite a big sales disappointment. 

Both Adtran and Calix are doing well in key accounts, especially with their SDN software. I hope that continues; I'm in the process of selling them ads and I need the money.  

ADTRAN, Inc. Announces Revised Fourth Quarter Revenue and Earnings Estimate


ADTRAN, Inc. (ADTN) announced revised revenue and earnings estimates for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2017. Based upon information currently available, revenue for the quarter is expected to be approximately $125 million. Non-GAAP earnings per share for the quarter are expected to be approximately $0.01. GAAP earnings per share for the quarter, assuming dilution, are expected to be a loss of approximately $0.04. Further, our current expectations are that revenue for the first quarter of 2018 will be in the range of the fourth quarter of 2017.

ADTRAN Chief Executive Officer Tom Stanton stated, “Our performance this quarter has been significantly impacted by a merger-related review and slowdown in the spending at a domestic Tier 1 customer. Our current understanding is that this review will be completed in 60 to 90 days, at which time capital plans will be finalized. Going forward, recent awards and trials in Tier 1 customer accounts, both domestically and abroad, leave us very confident about our positioning.”

GAAP earnings per share exclude any potential income tax effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Non-GAAP earnings per share exclude the effect of acquisition-related expenses, amortizations and adjustments, and stock compensation expense." rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank"> approximately 10 minutes before the start of the call and click on the conference call link provided." style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em;">The Company confirmed that its fourth quarter conference call will be held Wednesday, January 17, 2018, at 9:30 a.m. Central Time. ADTRAN will webcast this conference. To listen, simply visit the Investor Relations site at approximately 10 minutes before the start of the call and click on the conference call link provide


April 18

“My three biggest customers are marching to 7 and 5 nanometers.” Lip-Bu Tan. Moore’s Law ain’t dead yet.

Eric Xu, current Huawei Chairman, said consumers would find no “material difference between 4G & 5G.” Dozens of top engineers agree the "5G Revolution" is hokum, including  DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn, FT/Orange SVP Arnaud Vamparys, and BT CEO Gavin Patterson.
     Politicians and marketers pushed b_______. What’s coming for 5-10 years is good for telco capacity but otherwise disappointing. Unfortunately. 
     On the other hand, mmWave & Massive MIMO are improving at a ferocious rate, advancing telco capacity enormously. Massive MIMO has made it practical to use 3.5 GHz frequencies, a second remarkable booster. The "5G Revolution" is dead; Long Live the real 5G and advanced wireless!
U.S. attacks on Huawei and ZTE look to be an historic disaster.

China’s logical response is to invest to become independent of the U.S. They already have $100B on the table for memory chips and are rumored to add another $100B. Huawei/HiSilicon already holds their own against Qualcomm and everyone else in the world. 
    Zeng Xuezhong of Spreadtrum, world #3 mobile chipmaker, confirms: China will “speed up the chip R&D investment that is self-controlled and self-researched. We must never forget to make it bigger and stronger.”
     U.S. warships patrolling China’s seas inspire security fears. So does Trump’s threat to a country on China’s border."Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, [for] fire, fury and frankly power, the likes of which the world has never seen before.”
     China would be stupid not to have domestic capacity just in case. The Chinese leadership is not stupid.
The year's best wireless conference is next week. Ted Rappaport, Sandeep Rangan and colleagues bring the world's best engineers to the Brooklyn 5G Conference Summit. This year, Paulraj, Onoe, Fettweis, Katabi, and their peers are coming. Do not miss the webcast, .

April 10

A special report: Who Are The Three Billion? The Color Of The Net Has Changed
1/3rd wireless only, 2/3rds in Global South, 75% not native English speakers.