- Published: 08 June 2016 08 June 2016
U.S. & Canada fixed 2016 +22%, 2020 +15%. The 2016 growth in U.S. & Canada mobile data looks to be 49%; the 2020 prediction is 38%. The VNI sees a major slowdown in both fixed and wireless growth around the world. Cisco estimates 2016 worldwide mobile growth to be 68%. They expect that to fall to 41% in 2020 when most people will have smartphones. Remember the world turns so no five-year forecast is certain.
Check the chart below and extremely rich data here and here. There's so much information I could spend a week in the analysis and still not catch all the inferences. Accuracy can't be perfect but they are clearly the best in the business.
The 100% mobile growth was an artifact, driven by people first getting smartphones. The average smartphone user is increasing data usage ~40%/year, per AT&T.
As each region nears saturation in smartphones, growth is likely to fall to 40%. Wireline traffic has been growing ~40% per year for more than a decade. I can't yet explain why growth has fallen in half. The shift to mobile isn't substantial enough to be the and Smartphone WiFi adds more wireless
Wireline traffic has been growing ~40% per year for more than a decade. I can't yet explain why growth has fallen in half. The shift to mobile isn't substantial enough to be the primary cause. Smartphone WiFi adds demand on the fixed network. Netflix in the U.S. has been so successful they drove the increases the last few years. Video on demand is growing a little more slowly.
Cisco provides the best public data. They've been consistently on trend. Arielle Sumits and team develop hundreds, maybe thousands, of datapoints. They make estimates country by country for OTT video, gaming (both growing fast,) file sharing (flat in absolute traffic and down by half as a % of traffic,) and many other factors. They regularly crosscheck their estimates with the better research houses and experts - even me once. Nearly every major carrier in the world uses Cisco routers so they have unique insight.